We are at the midway point for the flu season, and with only 25 influenza-related deaths and 1123 Albertans hospitalized with influenza since mid-October, the flu vaccines is being reported as 72% effective so far, even with the earlier than normal start.

This is much better than the last few years when the vaccine was only 40% effective, and especially 4 years ago when it was barely effective at all.

Family physician and head of the Alberta component of the Influenza Surveillance Network Dr. Jim Dickinson says the virus is a fickle thing that is always changing, and the trick is to try and predict how it will change in order to prepare a proper vaccine.

“For scientists, that’s a really difficult thing to do because there’s always a variation that happens, and if the variation is not very much then we got it fairly right and the vaccine works well. If there is a lot of variation then we have missed the mark.”

So far this year there have been 1.2 million flu vaccine doses given, and over 5000 laboratory confirmed cases of influenza.

Every year we get three different epidemics of flu. Sometimes they all come at the same time, and other times they spread out throughout the year.

Dr. Dickinson says influenza unpredictability along with multiple types of strains makes it especially hard to manufacture a vaccine that is 100% effective.   

“It’s always difficult to predict how it’s going to change, and that’s the trick. We have to try and predict in February or March what it’s going to be like in the fall in order to manufacture the vaccine.”

Dr. Dickinson says it's still worthwhile to get a flu shot, even now, because based on past experiences we can expect a further late season epidemic before winter is over.